Peacock predicts that Villanova will win the NCAA mens title
The first two rounds of the NCAA mens basketball tournament are over, leaving us with a field of just 16 teams, each vying for the 2006 national championship, the Holy Grail for every Division I basketball program in the nation.
As of Monday, teams left with a shot at the national title included Duke, LSU, West Virginia, Texas, Memphis, Bradley, Gonzaga, UCLA, Connecticut, Washington, George Mason, Wichita, Villanova, Boston College, Florida and Georgetown. These 16 teams will face off in the regional semifinals tonight (Thursday) and tomorrow night, narrowing the field down to the Elite Eight.
Who will win the national title? Who will take home that championship trophy on April 3?
Well, wonder no longer, sports fans. I’m about to tell you thanks to the mighty power of an approach that us sports gurus call the “Process of Elimination.”
Go ahead and strike Bradley and George Mason. (Did you really think they would go all the way?) Bradley entered the tourney as a No. 13 seed, and George Mason was a No. 11 seed. Since seeds were introduced in 1979, no No. 9 seed or below has won a national title except No. 8 Villanova in 1985.
While you’re at it, go ahead and cross off Wichita State. Wichita’s head coach is Mark Turgeon and this is his first-ever trip to the NCAA tournament. First-time coaches don’t usually fair well in the tournament. In fact, Steve Fisher of Michigan is the only coach since 1963 to win the title in his first NCAA appearance as a head coach. (Fisher won it all as a first-time coach in 1989.)
Now go ahead and scratch off Gonzaga and Memphis, who play in two generally weak conferences, the West Coast Conference and Conference USA, respectively. Since the NCAA allowed more than two teams from each conference to compete, the champion has come from a conference that sent at least three teams to the tournament. Based on these criteria, Gonzaga and Memphis don’t make this year’s cut.
Next, get rid of Texas and Boston College. They both suffered blowouts during the regular season, and this is something that usually doesn’t happen to national champions. In fact, of the last 12 teams to win the tournament, only Maryland lost a regular season game by more than 17 points. Texas and B.C. both lost at least once by 18 or more points this season.
Now, strike off Washington, a No. 5 seed. Only four No. 5 seeds have ever reached the Final Four. Florida in 2000 and Indiana in 2002 were the only No. 5 seeds to reach the championship game. A No. 5 seed has never won the championship.
Go ahead and strike Connecticut, UCLA, Florida and LSU based on the performances in the tournament last year. (They all lost early in the tourney last season.) Only two national champions since 1988 failed to advance at least two rounds in the previous year’s tourney.
That leaves four teams - Duke, West Virginia, Villanova and Georgetown. (Note: This is not my Final Four, just the four teams left in the elimination process.)
At this point, scratch Georgetown off the list based on its preseason ranking. Every winner since 1986, except Syracuse, has been ranked No. 19 or higher in the AP preseason poll. Georgetown was unranked at the beginning of the season.
Next, strike off Duke and West Virginia, who are both in the Atlanta Regional. Many experts joke about the Atlanta Regional tourney being cursed. Since 1981, six regional finals have been played in Atlanta, and all six winners of the Atlanta Regional went on to lose in the national semifinals. For that reason, if Duke or West Virginia make it out of the Atlanta Regional, they won’t make it to the championship game.
In the end, that only leaves one school – Villanova. Of course, if Villanova (27-4) goes down in flames in the Minneapolis Regional semis tomorrow night against Boston College (28-7), I’ll have to reevaluate all of the above next week. However, until they lose, my money is on Villanova to win the 2006 national championship is Villanova. They’ve got a lot going in their favor.
As of Monday, teams left with a shot at the national title included Duke, LSU, West Virginia, Texas, Memphis, Bradley, Gonzaga, UCLA, Connecticut, Washington, George Mason, Wichita, Villanova, Boston College, Florida and Georgetown. These 16 teams will face off in the regional semifinals tonight (Thursday) and tomorrow night, narrowing the field down to the Elite Eight.
Who will win the national title? Who will take home that championship trophy on April 3?
Well, wonder no longer, sports fans. I’m about to tell you thanks to the mighty power of an approach that us sports gurus call the “Process of Elimination.”
Go ahead and strike Bradley and George Mason. (Did you really think they would go all the way?) Bradley entered the tourney as a No. 13 seed, and George Mason was a No. 11 seed. Since seeds were introduced in 1979, no No. 9 seed or below has won a national title except No. 8 Villanova in 1985.
While you’re at it, go ahead and cross off Wichita State. Wichita’s head coach is Mark Turgeon and this is his first-ever trip to the NCAA tournament. First-time coaches don’t usually fair well in the tournament. In fact, Steve Fisher of Michigan is the only coach since 1963 to win the title in his first NCAA appearance as a head coach. (Fisher won it all as a first-time coach in 1989.)
Now go ahead and scratch off Gonzaga and Memphis, who play in two generally weak conferences, the West Coast Conference and Conference USA, respectively. Since the NCAA allowed more than two teams from each conference to compete, the champion has come from a conference that sent at least three teams to the tournament. Based on these criteria, Gonzaga and Memphis don’t make this year’s cut.
Next, get rid of Texas and Boston College. They both suffered blowouts during the regular season, and this is something that usually doesn’t happen to national champions. In fact, of the last 12 teams to win the tournament, only Maryland lost a regular season game by more than 17 points. Texas and B.C. both lost at least once by 18 or more points this season.
Now, strike off Washington, a No. 5 seed. Only four No. 5 seeds have ever reached the Final Four. Florida in 2000 and Indiana in 2002 were the only No. 5 seeds to reach the championship game. A No. 5 seed has never won the championship.
Go ahead and strike Connecticut, UCLA, Florida and LSU based on the performances in the tournament last year. (They all lost early in the tourney last season.) Only two national champions since 1988 failed to advance at least two rounds in the previous year’s tourney.
That leaves four teams - Duke, West Virginia, Villanova and Georgetown. (Note: This is not my Final Four, just the four teams left in the elimination process.)
At this point, scratch Georgetown off the list based on its preseason ranking. Every winner since 1986, except Syracuse, has been ranked No. 19 or higher in the AP preseason poll. Georgetown was unranked at the beginning of the season.
Next, strike off Duke and West Virginia, who are both in the Atlanta Regional. Many experts joke about the Atlanta Regional tourney being cursed. Since 1981, six regional finals have been played in Atlanta, and all six winners of the Atlanta Regional went on to lose in the national semifinals. For that reason, if Duke or West Virginia make it out of the Atlanta Regional, they won’t make it to the championship game.
In the end, that only leaves one school – Villanova. Of course, if Villanova (27-4) goes down in flames in the Minneapolis Regional semis tomorrow night against Boston College (28-7), I’ll have to reevaluate all of the above next week. However, until they lose, my money is on Villanova to win the 2006 national championship is Villanova. They’ve got a lot going in their favor.
posted by Lee Peacock at 10:11 PM
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